Unrealistic demographic scenarios should not be published

Eric Le Bourg (1)

1 CRCA - Centre de Recherches sur la Cognition Animale - UMR5169

Background: Demographers often wonder "what would happen if ...", for instance, by forecasting the world population in 2100 under various scenarios. Some articles make predictions that have not any chance to be observed, because they are totally unrealistic from a biological viewpoint. Objective: Some examples of unrealistic scenarios are provided. This article argues that such unrealistic scenarios are a source of confusion and should not be published.

Domaines: Démographie

Eric Le Bourg. Unrealistic demographic scenarios should not be published. Demographic Research, 2014, http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol28/39/letter.htm. ⟨hal-00968065v2⟩