Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French cold-smoked Salmon: II. Risk Characterization
Résumé
A model for the assessment of exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold?smoked salmon consumption in France was presented in the first of this pair of articles (Pouillot et al., 2007, Risk Analysis, 27:683?700). In the present study, the exposure model output was combined with an internationally accepted hazard characterization model, adapted to the French situation, to assess the risk of invasive listeriosis from cold?smoked salmon consumption in France in a second?order Monte?Carlo simulation framework. The annual number of cases of invasive listeriosis due to cold?smoked salmon consumption in France is estimated to be 307, with a very large credible interval ([10; 12 453]), reflecting data uncertainty. This uncertainty is mainly associated with the dose-response model. Risk would be efficiently reduced through a decrease in the prevalence of L. monocytogenes or better control of the last steps of the cold?chain (shorter and/or colder storage during the consumer step). Reduction of the initial contamination levels of the contaminated products and improvement in the first steps of the cold?chain do not seem to be promising strategies for reducing the estimated risk. Despite the significant uncertainty associated with the predictions, this model provides a scientific base for risk managers and food business operators to manage the risk linked to cold-smoked salmon contaminated with Listeria moncytogenes and to apply the recent risk-based concept of risk management metrics illustrated here by the FSO (food safety objective).
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