Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis During Calibration of TRANUS, an Integrated Land Use and Transport Model

Parikshit Dutta (1) , Mathieu Saujot (2) , Élise Arnaud (1) , Benoit Lefevre (2) , Emmanuel Prados (1)

1 STEEP - Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy
2 IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales

In this work, propagation of uncertainty during calibration process of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model (ILUTM), has been investigated. It has also been examined, through a sensitivity analysis, which input parameters affect the variation of the outputs the most. Moreover, a probabilistic verification methodology of calibration process, which equates the observed and calculated production, has been proposed. The model chosen as an application is the model of the city of Grenoble, France. For sensitivity analysis and uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo method was employed, and a statistical hypothesis test was used for verification. The parameters of the induced demand function in TRANUS, were assumed as uncertain in the present case. It was found that, if during calibration, TRANUS converges, then with a high probability the calibration process is verified. Moreover, a weak correlation was found between the inputs and the outputs of the calibration process. The total effect of the inputs on outputs was investigated, and the output variation was found to be dictated by only a few input parameters.

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation

Parikshit Dutta, Mathieu Saujot, Élise Arnaud, Benoit Lefevre, Emmanuel Prados. Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis During Calibration of TRANUS, an Integrated Land Use and Transport Model. ICURPT 2012 - International Conference on Urban, Regional Planning and Transportation, May 2012, Amsterdam, Netherlands. ⟨hal-00701185⟩