Mathematization of risks and economic studies in global change modelling

Nicolas Bouleau (1, 2)

1 CERMICS - Centre d'Enseignement et de Recherche en Mathématiques, Informatique et Calcul Scientifique
2 CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement

With respect to the climate change, and more generally to the energy problem, in the laboratories working on the subject, scientists contribute to clarify the situation and to help decision makers by yielding and updating factual physical informations, and also by modelling. This conceptual work is mainly done in the language of economics. This discipline, which appears therefore in the core of the reflecting process in action at present, is however rather peculiar is the sense that it uses mathematics in order to think social phenomena. It is on this methodological configuration that we hold a philosophical enquiry. Our analysis focuses on risks, incertitude and on the role of mathematics to represent them. It concludes on the importance of a certain type of modelization, investigation modelling, which reveals new significations. This study attempts to enlighten some part of the limit between mathematized knowledge, as economics, and interpretative meaning used in every day life and social and human sciences

Mots clés: risk; probability distribution; heavy tail; finance : value at risk; coherent measure of risk; boundary at risk; interpretation; meaning; investigation modelling

Mots clés: risque; loi de probabilité; queue de loi; signification

Domaines: Economies et finances; Etudes de l'environnement

Nicolas Bouleau. Mathematization of risks and economic studies in global change modelling. 2009. ⟨halshs-00435959⟩