Seeking stability of supply chain management decisions under uncertain criteria

Romain Guillaume (1) , Guillaume Marquès (2) , Caroline Thierry (1) , Didier Dubois (1)

1 IRIT-ADRIA - Argumentation, Décision, Raisonnement, Incertitude et Apprentissage
2 PIESO-ENSMSE - Département Performance Industrielle et Environnementale des Systèmes et des Organisations

This paper tackles the question of the anticipation of the supply chain partner's decisional behaviour under uncertain criteria. In other words, we propose a model to support sequential decisions under uncertainty where the decision maker has to make hypothesis about the decision criteria. For example, Hurwicz criterion weights extreme optimism and pessimism positions and a classic criticism of this criterion consisting in the difficulty of the weight assessment and the involving decision instability. To achieve this, we present a method based on fuzzy representation of weight vision. Finally, the model allows sequential decision of a Decision Tree to be compute thanks a pignistic probabilities treatment of the fuzzy representation of the decision maker optimism-pessimism index. This approach is illustrated through an industrial case study.

Mots clés: imprecision; stable decision making; decision tree; supply chain; Hurwicz criteria; sequential game

Domaines: Modélisation et simulation

Romain Guillaume, Guillaume Marquès, Caroline Thierry, Didier Dubois. Seeking stability of supply chain management decisions under uncertain criteria. 9th International Conference on Modeling, Optimization & SIMulation (MOSim 2012), IMS laboratory, University of Bordeaux; Federative Structure IODE, MENESR, Jun 2012, Bordeaux, France. 10p. ⟨hal-00728634⟩