Modeling Weather Conditions Consequences on Road Trafficking Behaviors

Jean-Noël Kien (1, 2) , Guillaume Allain (1) , Fabrice Gamboa (2) , Philippe Goudal (1) , Jean-Michel Loubes (2)

1 MM - Mediamobile
2 IMT - Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse UMR5219

We provide a model to understand how adverse weather conditions modify traffic flow dynamic. We first prove that the microscopic Free Flow Speed of the vehicles is changed and then provide a rule to model this change. For this, we consider a thresholded linear model, corresponding to an application of a MARS model to road trafficking. This model adapts itself locally to the whole road network and provides accurate unbiased forecasted speed using live or short term forecasted weather data information.

Mots clés: Forecasting method; Linear thresholded model; Road traffic; Spatial extrapolation; Weather

Domaines: Méthodologie [stat.ME]; Machine Learning [stat.ML]; Applications [stat.AP]

Jean-Noël Kien, Guillaume Allain, Fabrice Gamboa, Philippe Goudal, Jean-Michel Loubes. Modeling Weather Conditions Consequences on Road Trafficking Behaviors. 2012. ⟨hal-00739585v2⟩