Monte-carlo analysis of object reentry in earth's atmosphere based on taguchi method
Résumé
The risk of space debris is now perceived as primordial by governments and international space agencies. Since the last decade, international space agencies have developed tools simulate the re-entry of satellites and orbital stations in order to assess casualty risk on the ground. Nevertheless, all current tools provide deterministic solutions, though models include various parameters that are not well known. Therefore, the provided results are strongly dependent on the assumptions made. One solution to obtain relevant and exploitable results would be to include uncertainties around those parameters in order to perform Monte-Carlo analysis. But such a study is very time consuming due to the large parameter space to explore (that necessitate hundreds of thousands simulations). To reduce the parameter search space, we present an application of the Taguchi Method, to model spacecraft debris re-entry in Earth's atmosphere. The Taguchi Method is a statistical analysis method that permits one to determine the parameters uncertainty that have the biggest impact on the results of the numerical simulation. We show how to use this method so as to restrain the quantity of parameters to consider for a Monte-Carlo analysis. Finally, we present the new object-oriented re-entry tool Calima developed by R.Tech. This new tool features three degree of freedom model, featuring also the perturbation of initial parameters of a numerical simulation in order to perform automatized Monte-Carlo Analysis. Calima is accelerated via Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) devices which have many cores architecture and that consume less energy than classical CPUs.
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