J. Alcamo, Scenarios as Tools for International Environmental Assessments, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen. Environmental Issues Report. Experts Corner Report. Prospects and Scenarios, issue.5, 2001.

J. Alcamo and T. Henrichs, Towards guidelines for environmental scenario analysis Environmental Futures: The Practice of Environmental Scenarios, pp.13-35, 2008.

J. Alcamo, T. Henrichs, and T. Rösch, World water in 2025 ? Global modelling scenarios for the World Commission on Water for the 21st century. Rep. A0002, Centre for Env, Systems Res., Univ. of Kassel, vol.49, p.34109, 2000.

S. Allain, en question : perspectives crois??es ?? - N??gocier l???eau comme un bien commun ?? travers la planification concert??e de bassin, Natures Sciences Soci??t??s, vol.20, issue.1, pp.52-65, 2012.
DOI : 10.1051/nss/2011132

N. W. Arnell, Climate change and global water resources, Global Environmental Change, vol.9, pp.31-52, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00017-5

M. Balestrat and O. Therond, Enjeux de la gestion quantitative de l'eau en France. Quels données et outils de modélisation pour les institutions publiques en charge de la gestion des étiages?, 2014.

R. Barbier, J. Riaux, and O. Barreteau, Science r??glementaire et d??mocratie technique, Natures Sciences Soci??t??s, vol.18, issue.1, pp.14-23, 2010.
DOI : 10.1051/nss/2010004

C. Barucq, A. Ait-kaci, and J. J. Enrich, Les services publics d'eau et d'assainissement en France. Données économiques, sociales et environnementales, FP2E ? BIPE, vol.59, p.pp, 2010.

G. Berndes, Bioenergy and water ? the implication of large-scale bioenergy production for water use and supply. Global Environ, Change, vol.12, pp.253-271, 2002.

B. Bhaduri, J. Harbor, B. Engel, and M. Grove, Assessing Watershed-Scale, Long-Term Hydrologic Impacts of Land-Use Change Using a GIS-NPS Model, Environmental Management, vol.26, issue.6, pp.643-658, 2000.
DOI : 10.1007/s002670010122

R. Biggs, C. Raudsepp-hearne, C. Atkinson-palombo, E. Bohensky, E. Boyd et al., Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios, Ecology and Society, vol.12, issue.1, 2007.
DOI : 10.5751/ES-02051-120117

L. Carlsson and A. Sandström, Network Governance of the Commons, International Journal of the Commons, vol.2, issue.1, pp.33-54, 2008.
DOI : 10.18352/ijc.20

M. D. Cohen, J. G. March, and J. P. Olsen, A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice, Administrative Science Quarterly, vol.17, issue.1, pp.1-25, 1972.
DOI : 10.2307/2392088

. Commissioner-general, . For-sustainable, and . Development, Le financement de la gestion des ressources en eau en France ? Etude de cas pour un rapport de l'OCDE. Etudes & Documents n°33, pp.2102-4723, 2011.

P. Coombes and M. Barry, A systems framework of big data driving policy making ? Melbourne water future. OzWater'14, Australia's International Water Conference & Exhibition, 2014.

C. Land and C. France, Ministère de l'Écologie, du Développement Durable et de l, 2012.

S. Council, L'eau et son droit Rapport public La Documentation française, Coll. Etudes et documents n° 61, p.pp, 2010.

T. Debril and O. Therond, Les difficultés associées à la gestion quantitative de l'eau et à la mise en oeuvre de la réforme des volumes prélevables: le cas du bassin Adour-Garonne, Agron. Environ. Soc, vol.2, issue.10, pp.127-138, 2012.

L. Del-moral-ituarte and C. Giansante, Constraints to Drought Contingency Planning in Spain: The Hydraulic Paradigm and the Case of Seville, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, vol.8, issue.2, pp.93-102, 2000.
DOI : 10.1111/1468-5973.00128

A. Dempster, Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multivalued Mapping, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, vol.38, issue.2, pp.325-339, 1967.
DOI : 10.1214/aoms/1177698950

J. Dury, F. Garcia, A. Reynaud, O. Therond, and J. E. Bergez, Modelling the Complexity of the Cropping Plan Decision-making, International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Modelling for Environment's Sake, Fifth Biennial Meeting, 2010.

K. M. Eisenhardt and M. J. Zbaracki, Strategic decision making, Spec. Issue: Fundamental themes in strategy process research, pp.17-37, 1992.
DOI : 10.1002/smj.4250130904

S. Elfert and H. Bormann, Simulated impact of past and possible future land use changes on the hydrological response of the Northern German lowland ???Hunte??? catchment, Journal of Hydrology, vol.383, issue.3-4, pp.245-255, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.12.040

N. L. Engle, O. R. Johns, M. Lemos, and D. R. Nelson, Integrated and Adaptive Management of Water Resources: Tensions, Legacies, and the Next Best Thing, Ecology and Society, vol.16, issue.1, 2011.
DOI : 10.5751/ES-03934-160119

E. Wfd, Directive establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy, EC of the European Parliament, vol.60, issue.23, 2000.

S. Fernandez and J. Trottier, La longue construction du débit d'objectif d'étiage: l'odyssée d'une métamorphose (la gestion des cours d'eau du bassin Adour- Garonne), Nouveaux Rapports à la Nature dans les Campagne. Editions QUAE, pp.153-167, 2012.

K. D. Frederick, Water resources and climate change Climate Change Economics & Policy ? An RFF Anthology, pp.67-74, 2001.

F. Tetlow, M. Hanusch, and M. , Strategic environmental assessment: the state of the art, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, vol.10, issue.2, pp.15-24, 1080.
DOI : 10.1080/02697459550036739

S. O. Funtowicz and J. R. Ravetz, Science for the post-normal age, Futures, vol.25, issue.7, pp.739-755, 1993.
DOI : 10.1016/0016-3287(93)90022-L

B. Gaudou, C. Sibertin-blanc, O. Therond, F. Amblard, Y. Auda et al., The MAELIA multi-agent platform for integrated analysis of interactions between agricultural land-use and lowwater management strategies, Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XIV, pp.10978-10981, 1007.

M. Haasnoot, H. Middelkoop, E. Van-beek, and W. P. Van-deursen, A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future, Sustainable Development, vol.4, issue.6, pp.369-381, 2011.
DOI : 10.1002/sd.438

B. W. Head and J. Alford, Wicked Problems: Implications for Public Policy and Management, Administration & Society, vol.47, issue.6, 2013.
DOI : 10.1177/0095399713481601

F. Hendrickx and E. Sauquet, Impact of warming climate on water management for the Ari??ge River basin (France), Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol.41, issue.5, pp.976-993, 1080.
DOI : 10.1029/2002WR001769

R. Hirji and R. Davis, Strategic environmental assessment: improving water resources governance and decision making. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, Environment Dept. & Energy, 2009.

T. Horlitz, The Role of Model Interfaces for Participation in Water Management, Water Resources Management, vol.12, issue.2003, pp.1091-1102, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s11269-006-9100-9

D. Huitema, E. Mostert, W. Egas, S. Moellenkamp, C. Pahl-wostl et al., Adaptive Water Governance: Assessing the Institutional Prescriptions of Adaptive (Co-)Management from a Governance Perspective and Defining a Research Agenda, Ecology and Society, vol.14, issue.1, 2009.
DOI : 10.5751/ES-02827-140126

D. W. Hulse, A. Branscomb, and S. G. Payne, ENVISIONING ALTERNATIVES: USING CITIZEN GUIDANCE TO MAP FUTURE LAND AND WATER USE, Ecological Applications, vol.14, issue.2, pp.325-341, 2004.
DOI : 10.1890/02-5009

A. J. Jakeman and R. A. Letcher, Integrated assessment and modelling: features, principles and examples for catchment management, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.18, issue.6, pp.491-501, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S1364-8152(03)00024-0

A. J. Jakeman, R. A. Letcher, and J. P. Norton, Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.21, issue.5, pp.602-614, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.01.004

G. Kallis and H. Coccossis, Managing Water for Athens: From the Hydraulic to the Rational Growth Paradigm, European Planning Studies, vol.11, issue.3, pp.245-262, 2003.
DOI : 10.1080/09654310303633

W. G. Kepner, D. J. Semmens, S. D. Bassett, D. A. Mouat, and D. C. Goodrich, Scenario Analysis for the San Pedro River, Analyzing Hydrological Consequences of a Future Environment, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, vol.94, issue.1-3, pp.115-127, 2004.
DOI : 10.1023/B:EMAS.0000016883.10110.15

L. Kørnøv and W. A. Thissen, Rationality in decision- and policy-making: implications for strategic environmental assessment, Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, vol.3, issue.3, pp.191-200, 2010.
DOI : 10.2307/3325389

J. J. Lafitte, P. Devos, and P. Portet, Les organismes uniques d'irrigation. Ministère de l'écologie, de l'énergie, du développement durable et de l'aménagement du territoire -Ministère de l'agriculture et de la pêche, Rapport Octobre, p.78, 2008.

R. Lardy, P. Mazzega, C. Sibertin-blanc, Y. Auda, J. M. Sanchez-perez et al., Calibration of simulation platforms including highly interweaved processes: the MAELIA multi-agent platform, Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, 2014.

L. Bourhis and J. P. , La publicisation des eaux ? rationalité et politique dans la gestion de l, 1964.

D. Leenhardt, O. Therond, C. Gascuel-odoux, M. O. Cordier, A. Reynaud et al., A generic framework for scenario exercises using models applied to water-resource management, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.37, pp.125-133, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.03.010

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00767926

M. C. Lemos and B. J. Morehouse, The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments, Global Environmental Change, vol.15, issue.1, pp.57-68, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.09.004

R. A. Letcher, B. F. Croke, and A. J. Jakeman, Integrated assessment modelling for water resource allocation and management: A generalised conceptual framework, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.22, issue.5, pp.733-742, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.014

Y. Liu, H. Gupta, E. Springer, and T. Wagener, Linking science with environmental decision making: Experiences from an integrated modeling approach to supporting sustainable water resources management, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.23, issue.7, pp.846-858, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.10.007

M. Mahmoud, Y. Liu, H. Hartmann, S. Stewart, T. Wagener et al., A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.24, issue.7, pp.798-808, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.010

H. March, O. Thérond, and D. Leenhardt, Water futures: Reviewing water-scenario analyses through an original interpretative framework, Ecological Economics, vol.82, pp.126-137, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.07.006

E. Mayor, C. Sibertin-blanc, O. Thérond, D. Panzoli, M. Vavasseur et al., Formal representation of Water Withdrawal Policies for Integrated Assessment, European Conference on Complex Systems, 2012.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00968234

P. Mazzega, R. Boulet, and T. Libourel, Graphs for ontology, law and policy New Frontiers in Graph Theory, pp.493-514, 2012.

P. Mazzega, C. Sibertin-blanc, O. Therond, F. Amblard, J. P. Arcangeli et al., Impact Assessment Modelling of Low-Water Management Policy. XXXIII Congr, WCAMA 2013 Computation applied to Environment and Natural Resources, pp.1014-1024, 2013.

B. S. Mcintosh, R. A. Seaton, and P. Jeffrey, Tools to think with? Towards understanding the use of computer-based support tools in policy relevant research, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.22, issue.5, pp.640-648, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.015

R. K. Merton, The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action, American Sociological Review, vol.1, issue.6, pp.894-904, 1936.
DOI : 10.2307/2084615

J. B. Miner, Behavioral theory of the firm, 2006.

R. H. Moss, J. A. Edmonds, K. A. Hibbard, M. R. Manning, S. K. Rose et al., The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, vol.91, issue.7282, pp.747-756, 2010.
DOI : 10.1038/nature08823

C. Murgue, R. Lardy, M. Vavasseur, D. Leenhardt, and O. Therond, Spatiotemporal fine simulation of effects of cropping and farming systems on irrigation withdrawal dynamics within river basin. Intern, Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, 2014.

M. Murray-hudson, P. Wolski, and S. Ringrose, Scenarios of the impact of local and upstream changes in climate and water use on hydro-ecology in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, Journal of Hydrology, vol.331, issue.1-2, pp.73-84, 2006.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.04.041

J. B. Narcy, Pour une gestion spatiale de l'eau. Comment sortir du tuyau?, 2004.

J. B. Narcy and L. Mermet, Nouvelles justifications pour une gestion spatiale de l'eauNew justifications for a spatial management of water, Nature Sciences Soci??t??s, vol.11, issue.2, pp.135-145, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S1240-1307(03)00043-8

E. Ostrom, Institutional rational choice, Theories of the Policy Process, pp.35-71, 1999.

T. Oxley, B. S. Mcintosh, N. Winder, M. Mulligan, and G. Engelen, Integrated modelling and decision-support tools: a Mediterranean example, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.19, issue.11, pp.999-1010, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2003.11.003

C. Pagé and L. Terray, Nouvelles projections climatiques à échelle fine sur la France pour le 21ème siècle: les scénarii SCRATCH2010, 2010.

C. Pahl-wostl, The implications of complexity for integrated resources management, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.22, issue.5, pp.561-569, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.12.024

C. Pahl-wostl and I. Borowski, Special Issue: Methods for Participatory Water Resources Management ??? Preface, Water Resources Management, vol.21, issue.7, pp.1047-1048, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s11269-006-9097-0

C. Pahl-wostl, G. Holtz, B. Kastens, and C. Kneiper, Analyzing complex water governance regimes: the Management and Transition Framework, Environmental Science & Policy, vol.13, issue.7, pp.571-581, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsci.2010.08.006

H. W. Rittel and M. M. Webber, Dilemmas in a general theory of planning, Policy Sciences, vol.4, issue.2, pp.155-169, 1973.
DOI : 10.1007/BF01405730

C. Rosenzweig, K. M. Strzepeck, D. C. Major, A. Iglesias, D. N. Yates et al., Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies. Global Environ, Change, vol.14, pp.345-360, 2004.

J. Rotmans and M. Asselt, Integrated assessment: A growing child on its way to maturity, Climatic Change, vol.6, issue.3-4, pp.327-336, 1996.
DOI : 10.1007/BF00139296

S. Agb, Schéma directeur d'aménagement et de gestion des eaux du bassin Adour-Garonne 2010-2015, 2009.

G. Shafer, A mathematical theory of evidence, 1976.

N. G. Shepherd, M. Rudd, and J. , The Influence of Context on the Strategic Decision-Making Process: A Review of the Literature, International Journal of Management Reviews, vol.37, issue.3, pp.340-364, 2014.
DOI : 10.1111/ijmr.12023

C. Sibertin-blanc, O. Therond, C. Monteil, and P. Mazzega, Formal modelling of socio-ecological systems. In: ESSA2011, The Seventh Conference of the European Social Simulation Association, 2011.

B. Sterk, P. Carberry, C. Leeuwis, M. K. Van-ittersum, M. Howden et al., The interface between land use systems research and policy: Multiple arrangements and leverages, Land Use Policy, vol.26, issue.2, pp.434-442, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.05.003

K. Strzepek and B. Boehlert, Competition for water for the food system, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.12, issue.5477, pp.2927-2940, 2010.
DOI : 10.1126/science.289.5477.284

P. Taillandier, O. Therond, and B. Gaudou, A new BDI agent architecture based on the belief theory Application to the modelling of cropping plan decisionmaking, Intern. Env. Modelling and Software Soc. (iEMSs) 2012 Intern, 2012.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00714325

O. Therond, H. Belhouchette, S. Janssen, K. Louhichi, F. Ewert et al., Methodology to translate policy assessment problems into scenarios: the example of the SEAMLESS integrated framework, Environmental Science & Policy, vol.12, issue.5, pp.619-630, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsci.2009.01.013

O. Therond, C. Sibertin-blanc, R. Lardy, B. Gaudou, M. Balestrat et al., Integrated modelling of social-ecological systems: The MAELIA high-resolution multi-agent platform to deal with water scarcity problems, Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, pp.978-88, 2014.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01360865

S. Thoyer, S. Morardet, P. Rio, and R. Goodhue, Comparaison des proc??dures de d??centralisation et de n??gociation de la gestion de l'eau en France et en Californie, Natures Sciences Soci??t??s, vol.12, issue.1, pp.7-17, 2004.
DOI : 10.1051/nss:2004002

F. L. Toth and E. Hizsnyik, Integrated environmental assessment methods: evolution and applications, Environmental Modeling and Assessment, vol.3, issue.3, pp.193-207, 1998.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1019071008074

H. Van-delden, R. Seppelt, R. White, and A. J. Jakeman, A methodology for the design and development of integrated models for policy support, Environmental Modelling & Software, vol.26, issue.3, pp.266-279, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.03.021

M. Volk, S. Liersch, and G. Schmidt, Towards the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive?, Land Use Policy, vol.26, issue.3, pp.580-588, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.08.005

J. Vörösmarty, P. Green, J. Salisbury, and R. B. Lammers, Global Water Resources: Vulnerability from Climate Change and Population Growth, Science, vol.289, issue.5477, pp.284-288, 2000.
DOI : 10.1126/science.289.5477.284

M. Weiß, R. Schaldach, J. Alcamo, and M. Flörke, Quantifying the human appropriation of fresh water by African agriculture, Ecol. Soc, vol.14, issue.25, 2009.