C. Aing, S. Halls, K. Oken, R. Dobrow, and J. Fieberg, A Bayesian hierarchical occupancy model for track surveys conducted in a series of linear, spatially correlated, sites, Journal of Applied Ecology, vol.6, issue.6, pp.1508-1517, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02037.x

J. D. Allan, M. Palmer, and N. L. Poff, Climate change and freshwater ecosystems Climate Change and Biodiversity, pp.274-290, 2005.

J. G. Arnold, R. Srinivasan, R. S. Muttiah, and J. R. Williams, LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART I: MODEL DEVELOPMENT, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, vol.27, issue.6, pp.73-89, 1998.
DOI : 10.1016/S0022-1694(96)80016-3

P. Aymerich, Els micromam?fers semiaquatics d'Andorra: distribucio i estat de conservacio, pp.26-34, 2004.

P. Aymerich and J. Gosàlbez, La prospección de excrementos como metodología para el estudio de la distribución de los musgaños, Galemys: Boletín informativo de la Sociedad Española para la conservación y estudio de los mamíferos, pp.83-90, 2004.

S. M. Barber-meyer, S. R. Jnawali, J. B. Karki, P. Khanal, S. Lohani et al., Influence of prey depletion and human disturbance on tiger occupancy in Nepal, Journal of Zoology, vol.18, issue.1, pp.10-18, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2012.00956.x

A. M. Barbosa, R. Real, J. Olivero, and J. M. Vargas, Otter (Lutra lutra) distribution modeling at two resolution scales suited to conservation planning in the Iberian Peninsula, Biol. Conserv, vol.114, issue.377, p.387, 2003.

A. M. Barbosa, R. Real, and J. M. Vargas, Transferability of environmental favourability models in geographic space: The case of the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in Portugal and Spain, Ecological Modelling, vol.220, issue.5, pp.747-754, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.12.004

A. M. Barbosa, R. Real, and J. M. Vargas, Use of Coarse-Resolution Models of Species??? Distributions to Guide Local Conservation Inferences, Conservation Biology, vol.17, issue.5, pp.1378-1387, 2010.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01517.x

A. Bertrand, Répartition géographique et écologie alimentaire du desman des Pyrénées Galemys pyrenaicus (Geoffroy, 1811) dans les Pyrénées françaises, 1994.

L. Blank and L. Blaustein, Using ecological niche modeling to predict the distributions of two endangered amphibian species in aquatic breeding sites, Hydrobiologia, vol.14, issue.1, pp.157-167, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s10750-012-1101-5

D. N. Bucklin, M. Basille, A. M. Benscoter, L. A. Brandt, F. J. Mazzotti et al., Comparing species distribution models constructed with different subsets of environmental predictors, Diversity and Distributions, vol.106, issue.1, pp.23-35, 2015.
DOI : 10.1111/ddi.12247

K. P. Burnham and D. R. Anderson, Model selection and multi-model inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2002.

A. Charbonnel, F. D-'amico, A. Besnard, F. Blanc, L. Buisson et al., Spatial replicates as an alternative to temporal replicates for occupancy modelling when surveys are based on linear features of the landscape, Journal of Applied Ecology, vol.16, issue.5, pp.1425-1433, 2014.
DOI : 10.1111/1365-2664.12301
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01494958

L. Comte and G. Grenouillet, Species distribution modelling and imperfect detection: comparing occupancy versus consensus methods, Diversity and Distributions, vol.15, issue.8, pp.996-1007, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/ddi.12078

Z. S. Dewson, A. B. James, and R. G. Death, A review of the consequences of decreased flow for instream habitat and macroinvertebrates, Journal of the North American Benthological Society, vol.26, issue.3, pp.401-415, 2007.
DOI : 10.1899/06-110.1

S. Domisch, M. B. Araújo, N. Bonada, S. U. Pauls, S. C. Jähnig et al., Modelling distribution in European stream macroinvertebrates under future climates, Global Change Biology, vol.11, issue.3, pp.752-762, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.12107
URL : https://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/125486/1/accesoRestringido.pdf

D. Dudgeon, A. H. Arthington, M. O. Gessner, Z. Kawabata, D. J. Knowler et al., Freshwater biodiversity: importance, threats, status and conservation challenges, Biological Reviews, vol.11, issue.02, pp.163-182, 2006.
DOI : 10.1128/AEM.69.10.5875-5883.2003
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.568.4047

A. M. Durso, J. D. Willson, and C. T. Winne, Needles in haystacks: Estimating detection probability and occupancy of rare and cryptic snakes, Biological Conservation, vol.144, issue.5, pp.1508-1515, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.biocon.2011.01.020

M. Fernandes, J. Herrero, S. Aulagnier, and G. Amori, Galemys pyrenaicus, 2008.

A. F. Filipe, M. B. Araújo, I. Doadrio, P. L. Angermeier, and M. J. Collares-pereira, Biogeography of Iberian freshwater fishes revisited: the roles of historical versus contemporary constraints, Journal of Biogeography, vol.49, issue.11, pp.2096-2110, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02154.x

P. W. Gassman, M. R. Reyes, C. H. Green, and J. G. Arnold, The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions, Transactions of the ASABE, vol.50, issue.4, pp.1211-1250, 2007.
DOI : 10.13031/2013.23637

J. González-esteban, I. Villate, and E. Castién, A comparison of methodologies used in the detection of the Pyrenean desman Galemys pyrenaicus (E. Geoffroy, 1811), Mammalian Biology - Zeitschrift f??r S??ugetierkunde, vol.68, issue.6, pp.387-390, 2003.
DOI : 10.1078/1616-5047-00107

W. Gu and R. K. Swihart, Absent or undetected? Effects of non-detection of species occurrence on wildlife???habitat models, Biological Conservation, vol.116, issue.2, pp.195-203, 2004.
DOI : 10.1016/S0006-3207(03)00190-3

A. Guisan and N. E. Zimmermann, Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology, Ecological Modelling, vol.135, issue.2-3, pp.147-186, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00354-9

K. S. Heinemeyer, T. J. Ulizio, and R. L. Harrison, Natural sign: tracks and scat Non-Invasive Survey Methods for Carnivores, pp.45-74, 2008.

J. E. Hines, PRESENCE 2: software to estimate patch occupancy and related parameters, U.S. Geological Survey, 2006.

J. E. Hines, J. D. Nichols, J. A. Royle, D. I. Mackenzie, A. M. Gopalaswamy et al., Tigers on trails: occupancy modeling for cluster sampling, Ecological Applications, vol.39, issue.5, pp.1456-1466, 2010.
DOI : 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0777:EAFRPA]2.0.CO;2
URL : http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/M9.FIGSHARE.C.3294596

S. C. Jähnig, M. Kuemmerlen, J. Kiesel, S. Domisch, Q. Cai et al., Modelling of riverine ecosystems by integrating models: conceptual approach, a case study and research agenda, Journal of Biogeography, vol.140, issue.12, pp.2253-2263, 2012.
DOI : 10.1111/jbi.12009

K. U. Karanth, A. M. Gopalaswamy, N. S. Kumar, S. Vaidyanathan, J. D. Nichols et al., Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys, Journal of Applied Ecology, vol.18, issue.4, pp.1048-1056, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02002.x

M. Kéry, B. Gardner, and C. Monnerat, Predicting species distributions from checklist data using site-occupancy models, Journal of Biogeography, vol.16, pp.1851-1862, 2010.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02345.x

M. Kéry, G. Guillera-arroita, and J. J. Lahoz-monfort, Analysing and mapping species range dynamics using occupancy models, Journal of Biogeography, vol.16, issue.8, pp.1463-1474, 2013.
DOI : 10.1111/jbi.12087

J. Kiesel, N. Fohrer, B. Schmalz, and M. J. White, Incorporating landscape depressions and tile drainages of a northern German lowland catchment into a semi-distributed model, Hydrological Processes, vol.44, issue.6, pp.1472-1486, 2010.
DOI : 10.1002/hyp.7607

M. Kuemmerlen, B. Schmalz, B. Guse, Q. Cai, N. Fohrer et al., Integrating catchment properties in small scale species distribution models of stream macroinvertebrates, Ecological Modelling, vol.277, pp.77-86, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.020

P. S. Lake, Disturbance, patchiness, and diversity in streams, Journal of the North American Benthological Society, vol.19, issue.4, pp.573-592, 2000.
DOI : 10.2307/1468118

D. I. Mackenzie, J. D. Nichols, G. B. Lachman, S. Droege, J. A. Royle et al., ESTIMATING SITE OCCUPANCY RATES WHEN DETECTION PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN ONE, Ecology, vol.83, issue.8, pp.2248-2255, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S0169-5347(01)02205-4

D. I. Mackenzie, J. D. Nichols, J. A. Royle, K. H. Pollock, L. L. Bailey et al., Occupancy Estimation and Modeling: Inferring Patterns and Dynamics of Species Occurrence, 2006.

S. Manel, H. C. Williams, and S. J. Ormerod, Evaluating presence-absence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence, Journal of Applied Ecology, vol.38, issue.Supplement 1, pp.921-931, 2001.
DOI : 10.1046/j.1365-2664.2001.00647.x
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/halsde-00295050

Y. Melero, P. Aymerich, J. J. Luque-larena, and J. Gosàlbez, New insights into social and space use behaviour of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), European Journal of Wildlife Research, vol.15, issue.1, pp.185-193, 2012.
DOI : 10.1007/s10344-011-0561-7

D. A. Miller, J. D. Nichols, B. T. Mcclintock, E. H. Grant, L. L. Bailey et al., Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification, Ecology, vol.92, issue.7, pp.1422-1428, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.biocon.2010.12.003

D. N. Moriasi, J. G. Arnold, M. W. Van-liew, R. L. Binger, R. D. Harmel et al., Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations, Transactions of the ASABE, vol.50, issue.3, pp.885-900, 2007.
DOI : 10.13031/2013.23153

N. Morueta-holme, C. Flojgaard, and J. Svenning, Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species, PLoS ONE, vol.5, issue.4, 2010.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0010360.s002
URL : http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0010360

M. Némoz, A. Bertrand, M. Sourie, and P. Arlot, A French Conservation Action Plan for the Pyrenean Desman Galemys pyrenaicus, Galemys: Boletín informativo de la Sociedad Española para la conservación y estudio de los mamíferos, pp.47-50, 2011.

S. L. Neitsch, J. G. Arnold, J. R. Kiniry, and J. R. Williams, Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation, Version 2013, 2005.

C. Nores, F. Ojeda, A. Ruano, I. Villate, and J. González, Aproximación a la metodología y estudio del área de distribución, estatus de población y selección de hábitat del desmán (Galemys pyrenaicus) en la Península Ibérica, 1992.

D. Ottaviani, M. Panzacchi, J. Lasinio, G. Genovesi, P. Boitani et al., Modelling semi-aquatic vertebrates??? distribution at the drainage basin scale: The case of the otter Lutra lutra in Italy, Ecological Modelling, vol.220, issue.2, pp.111-121, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.09.014

C. Pagé and L. Terray, Nouvelles projections climatiques à échelle fine sur la France pour le 21ème siècle : les scénarii SCRATCH2010, 2010.

J. M. Palmeirim and R. S. Hoffmann, Galemys pyrenaicus, Mammalian Species, vol.207, issue.207, pp.1-5, 1983.
DOI : 10.2307/3503939

N. M. Pedroso, T. A. Marques, and M. Santos-reis, The response of otters to environmental changes imposed by the construction of large dams. Aquatic Conserv.: Marine Freshwater Ecosyst, pp.66-80, 2014.

A. I. Queiroz, H. Alves, and V. Almada, The small hydro plants: predicted impacts on the Pyrenean desman populations (Galemys pyrenaicus, Geoffroy), Proceedings of the Meeting on the Pyrenean Desman, pp.69-77, 1993.

C. Qi and S. Grunwald, GIS-BASED HYDROLOGIC MODELING IN THE SANDUSKY WATERSHED USING SWAT, Transactions of the ASAE, vol.48, issue.1, pp.169-180, 2005.
DOI : 10.13031/2013.17960

A. I. Queiroz, A. Bertrand, and G. Khakhin, Status and conservation of Desmaninae in Europe, 1996.

M. G. Ramalhinho, B. Vida, and M. J. , Habitat of the Pyrenean Desman: assessment of running water quality. Monitoring pollution, Proceedings of the Meeting on the Pyrenean Desman, pp.63-67, 1993.

N. Reid, M. G. Lundy, B. Hayden, D. Lynn, F. Marnell et al., Detecting detectability: identifying and correcting bias in binary wildlife surveys demonstrates their potential impact on conservation assessments, European Journal of Wildlife Research, vol.28, issue.1, pp.869-879, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s10344-013-0741-8

A. Royan, M. D. Hannah, J. S. Reynolds, G. D. Noble, and P. J. Sadler, River birds??? response to hydrological extremes: New vulnerability index and conservation implications, Biological Conservation, vol.177, pp.64-73, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.biocon.2014.06.017
URL : http://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2014.06.017

J. A. Royle and W. A. Link, GENERALIZED SITE OCCUPANCY MODELS ALLOWING FOR FALSE POSITIVE AND FALSE NEGATIVE ERRORS, Ecology, vol.87, issue.4, pp.835-841, 2006.
DOI : 10.1890/02-5078
URL : http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/M9.FIGSHARE.C.3299078

D. L. Stevens and A. R. Olsen, Spatially Balanced Sampling of Natural Resources, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.99, issue.465, pp.262-278, 2004.
DOI : 10.1198/016214504000000250
URL : http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.123.7110

D. L. Strayer and D. D. Dudgeon, Freshwater biodiversity conservation: recent progress and future challenges, Journal of the North American Benthological Society, vol.29, issue.1, pp.344-358, 2010.
DOI : 10.1899/08-171.1

M. Thorn, M. Green, P. W. Bateman, S. Waite, and D. M. Scott, Brown hyaenas on roads: Estimating carnivore occupancy and abundance using spatially auto-correlated sign survey replicates, Biological Conservation, vol.144, issue.6, pp.1799-1807, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.biocon.2011.03.009
URL : https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/18932/204359_134755_77775-published-version.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=n

J. Toner, J. Farrell, and J. Mead, Muskrat Abundance Responses to Water level Regulation Within Freshwater Coastal Wetlands, Wetlands, vol.34, issue.2, pp.211-219, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/s13157-010-0034-x

C. J. Vörösmarty, P. B. Mcintyre, M. O. Gessner, D. Dudgeon, A. Prusevich et al., Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity, Nature, vol.16, issue.7315, pp.555-561, 2010.
DOI : 10.1038/nature09440

M. Williams-tripp, F. J. D-'amico, C. Pagé, A. Bertrand, M. Némoz et al., Modeling Rare Species Distribution at the Edge: The Case for the Vulnerable Endemic Pyrenean Desman in France, The Scientific World Journal, vol.5, issue.1, pp.1-6, 2012.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00221.x

L. P. Waits and D. Paetkau, NONINVASIVE GENETIC SAMPLING TOOLS FOR WILDLIFE BIOLOGISTS: A REVIEW OF APPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACCURATE DATA COLLECTION, Journal of Wildlife Management, vol.27, issue.4, pp.1419-1433, 2005.
DOI : 10.2193/0022-541X(2005)69[1419:NGSTFW]2.0.CO;2

M. Winchell, R. Srinivasan, D. Luzio, M. Arnold, and J. G. , ArcSWAT interface for SWAT user's guide, Texas Agricultural Experiment Station and USDA Agricultural Research Service, 2007.