Development and validation of a novel clinical scoring system for short-term prediction of death in dogs with acute pancreatitis

Virginie Fabrès (1) , Olivier Dossin (2, 3) , Clémence Reif (1) , Miguel Campos (1, 4) , Valerie Freiche (1) , Christelle Maurey (1) , Fanny Pilot-Storck (1) , Loic Desquilbet (1) , Ghita Benchekroun (1)

1 ENVA - École nationale vétérinaire d'Alfort
2 IRSD - Institut de Recherche en Santé Digestive
3 Department of Clinical Sciences
4 UNIBE - Universität Bern / University of Bern

Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with a high death rate in dogs, but accurate predictors of early death are still lacking. Objectives: To develop a scoring system for prediction of short-term case fatality in dogs with AP. Animals: One hundred sixty-nine dogs with AP including 138 dogs in the training cohort and 31 dogs in the validation cohort. Methods: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study. Survival analysis was used to assess the associations with short-term death (within 30 days after admission). Independent predictors of death were identified by a stepwise selection method and used for the score calculation. Results: Death rate within 30 days after admission was 33% in the training cohort. Four independent risk factors for short-term death were identified in the training cohort: presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, coagulation disorders, increased creatinine and ionized hypocalcemia. Canine Acute Pancreatitis Severity (CAPS) score was developed to predict shortterm death, integrating these 4 factors in a weighted way. A simplified version of CAPS score (sCAPS) including respiratory rate instead of SIRS was also assessed. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of CAPS and sCAPS scores was 0.92 in the training cohort with an optimal cutoff of 11 (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 90%) and 6 (sensitivity, 96%; specificity, 77%), respectively. CAPS and sCAPS score were validated in the validation cohort with respective AUC of 0.91 and 0.96. Conclusions and Clinical Importance: We propose 2 scoring systems that allow early and accurate prediction of short-term death in dogs with AP.

Mots clés: creatinine; prognosis; severity

Mots clés: coagulation disorders; hypocalcemia; systemic inflammatory response syndrome

Domaines: Médecine vétérinaire et santé animale

Virginie Fabrès, Olivier Dossin, Clémence Reif, Miguel Campos, Valerie Freiche, et al.. Development and validation of a novel clinical scoring system for short-term prediction of death in dogs with acute pancreatitis. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine, 2019, 33 (2), pp.499-507. ⟨10.1111/jvim.15421⟩. ⟨hal-02628730⟩