Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

Martin J P Sullivan (1) , Simon Lewis , Kofi Affum-Baffoe (2) , Carolina Castilho (3) , Flávia Costa , Aida Cuni Sanchez , Corneille Ewango , Wannes Hubau (4) , Beatriz Marimon , Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza (5) , Lan Qie (4) , Bonaventure Sonke (6) , Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez , Timothy Baker , Roel Brienen (7) , Ted Feldpausch , David Galbraith (8) , Manuel Gloor (7) , Yadvinder Malhi (9) , Shin-Ichiro Aiba (10) , Miguel Alexiades (11) , Everton Almeida , Edmar Almeida de Oliveira (12) , Esteban Alvarez Davila (13) , Patricia Alvarez Loayza (14) , Ana Andrade (15) , Simone Aparecida Vieira (16) , Luiz Aragao (17) , Alejandro Araujo-Murakami (18) , Eric Arets (19) , Luzmila Arroyo (5) , Peter Ashton (20) , Gerardo Aymard C. , Fabrício Baccaro , Lindsay Banin , Christopher Baraloto (21) , Plínio Barbosa Camargo (22) , Jos Barlow , Jorcely Barroso (23) , Jean-Francois Bastin (24) , Sarah Batterman , Hans Beeckman (25) , Serge Begne , Amy Bennett , Erika Berenguer (26) , Nicholas Berry (27) , Lilian Blanc (21) , Pascal Boeckx (28) , Jan Bogaert (29) , Damien Bonal (30) , Frans Bongers (31) , Matt Bradford (32) , Francis Brearley , Terry Brncic , Foster Brown (33) , Benoît Burban (21) , José Luís Camargo , Wendeson Castro (23) , Carlos Cerón (34) , Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro , Victor Chama Moscoso (35) , Jérôme Chave (36) , Eric Chezeaux (37) , Connie Clark , Fernanda Coelho de Souza , Murray Collins , James Comiskey , Fernando Cornejo Valverde (38) , Massiel Corrales Medina , Lola da Costa (39) , Martin Dančák , Greta Dargie (4) , Stuart Davies (40) , Nallaret Davila Cardozo (41) , Thales de Haulleville , Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros , Jhon del Aguila Pasquel , Géraldine Derroire (42) , Anthony Di Fiore (43) , Jean-Louis Doucet (44) , Aurélie K. Dourdain (45) , Vincent Droissart (46) , Luisa Fernanda Duque , Romeo Ekoungoulou , Fernando Elias (47) , Terry Erwin , Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert (1) , Sophie Fauset (4) , Joice Ferreira (48) , Gerardo Flores Llampazo , Ernest Foli , Andrew Ford (49) , Martin Gilpin (4) , Jefferson Hall (40) , Keith Hamer , Alan Hamilton , David Harris (50) , Terese Hart , Radim Hédl (51) , Bruno Hérault (52) , Rafael Herrera , Niro Higuchi (53) , Annette Hladik (54) , Eurídice Honorio Coronado , Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco (35) , Walter Huaraca Huasco , Kathryn Jeffery (55) , Eliana Jimenez-Rojas , Michelle Kalamandeen , Marie Noël Kamdem Djuikouo , Elizabeth Kearsley (56) , Ricardo Keichi Umetsu , Lip Khoon Kho (57) , Timothy Killeen , Kanehiro Kitayama (58) , Bente Klitgaard , Alexander Koch (59) , Nicolas Labrière (42) , William Laurance , Susan Laurance (60) , Miguel Leal , Aurora Levesley , Adriano Lima , Janvier Lisingo , Aline Lopes , Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez (4) , Tom Lovejoy , Jon Lovett (1) , Richard K Lowe (61) , William Magnusson (62) , Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte , Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto , Ben Hur Marimon (63) , Andrew M. Marshall (64) , Toby Marthews , Simone Matias de Almeida Reis , Colin Maycock , Karina Melgaço , Casimiro Mendoza (65) , Faizah Metali , Vianet Mihindou , William Milliken (66) , Edward Mitchard , Paulo Morandi (65) , Hannah Mossman , Laszlo Nagy (67) , Henrique Nascimento (68) , David Neill (69) , Reuben Nilus (70) , Percy Núñez Vargas (35) , Walter Palacios , Nadir Pallqui Camacho , Julie Peacock (1) , Colin Pendry , Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora , Georgia Pickavance , John Pipoly , Nigel Pitman (14) , Maureen Playfair , Lourens Poorter (71) , John Poulsen , Axel Dalberg Poulsen (72) , Richard Preziosi , Adriana Prieto (13) , Richard Primack , Hirma Ramirez-Angulo (65) , Jan Reitsma (73) , Maxime Réjou-Méchain (46) , Zorayda Restrepo Correa , Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa , Lily Rodriguez Bayona , Anand Roopsind (74) , Agustín Rudas (13) , Ervan Rutishauser (40, 75) , Kamariah Abu Salim , Rafael P Salomão (76) , Juliana Schietti (15) , Douglas Sheil (77) , Richarlly Silva , Javier Silva Espejo (35) , Camila Silva Valeria , Marcos Silveira (23) , Murielle Simo-Droissart (78) , Marcelo Fragomeni Simon , James Singh , Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva , Clement Stahl (45) , Juliana Stropp (79) , Rahayu Sukri , Terry Sunderland (77) , Martin Svátek , Michael Swaine (80) , Varun Swamy , Hermann Taedoumg (81) , Joey Talbot (4) , James Taplin , David Taylor (82) , Hans ter Steege (83) , John Terborgh (84) , Raquel Thomas , Sean Thomas , Armando Torres-Lezama (85) , Peter Umunay , Luis Valenzuela Gamarra (5) , Geertje van Der Heijden (86) , Peter van Der Hout (87) , Peter van Der Meer (88) , Mark van Nieuwstadt , Hans Verbeeck (89) , Ronald Vernimmen , Alberto Vicentini , Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira (76) , Emilio Vilanova Torre (90) , Jason Vleminckx (91) , Vincent Vos , Ophelia Wang (92) , Lee White (93) , Simon Willcock (94) , John Woods , Verginia Wortel (95) , Kenneth Young , Roderick Zagt , Lise Zemagho (81) , Pieter Zuidema , Joeri Zwerts , Oliver Phillips

1 University of Leeds
2 Mensurat Unit
3 Centro de Pesquisa Agroflorestal de Roraima
4 Sch Geog
5 Missouri Botanical Garden
6 HTTC-UMA - Higher Teachers' Training College, University of Maroua
7 School of Geography [Leeds]
8 Edin. - University of Edinburgh
9 School of Geography and the Environment, Environmental Change Institute
10 Grad Sch Sci & Engn
11 University of Kent [Canterbury]
12 UFMT - Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso
13 Universidad Nacional de Colombia
14 Duke University [Durham]
15 INPA - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia = National Institute of Amazonian Research
16 UNICAMP - Universidade Estadual de Campinas = University of Campinas
17 INPE - National Institute for Space Research [Sao José dos Campos] = Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
18 UAGRM - Universidad Autonoma Gabriel René Moreno
19 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
20 Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol
21 ECOFOG - Ecologie des forêts de Guyane
22 USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo
23 UFAC - Universidade Federal do Acre
24 Research Unit of Landscape Ecology and Plant Production Systems
25 School of Engineering and Science
26 Lancaster Environment Centre
27 Sch Geosci
28 Laboratory of Applied Physical Chemistry
29 Biodiversité et Paysage
30 SILVA - SILVA
31 Forest Ecol & Forest Management Grp
32 CSIRO Land and Water
33 Woods Hole Research Center
34 Herbario Alfredo Paredes
35 UNSAAC - Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco
36 EDB - Evolution et Diversité Biologique
37 Rougier Gabon
38 Andes to Amazon Biodiversity Program
39 UFPA - Federal University of Para - Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA [Belém, Brazil]
40 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
41 UNAP - Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana [Loreto, Perou]
42 AgroParisTech
43 University of Texas at Austin [Austin]
44 Université de Liège
45 UMR ECOFOG - Ecologie des forêts de Guyane
46 UMR AMAP - Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations
47 LMDH - Laboratoire des Milieux Désordonnés et Hétérogènes
48 Embrapa - Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation
49 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific & Industrial Research Organisation
50 Royal Botanic Gardens
51 CAS - Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
52 CGP - Commissariat général du Plan
53 Instituto Nacional de Pequisas da Amazônia
54 EA - Éco-Anthropologie
55 Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux,
56 UGENT - Universiteit Gent = Ghent University
57 Malaysian Palm Oil Board
58 Kyoto University
59 Institute of Inorganic and Analytical Chemistry
60 JCU - James Cook University
61 LEAD - Laboratoire d'Etude de l'Apprentissage et du Développement [Dijon]
62 Coordenac Bao de Pesquisas em Ecologia
63 UNEMAT - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
64 University of Mary Washington
65 Chercheur indépendant
66 Royal Botanic Gardens [Kew]
67 Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology
68 IST - Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa
69 Universidad Estatal Amazonica
70 FRC - Forest Research Centre
71 Forest Ecology and Forest Management Group
72 Natural History Museum [Oslo]
73 Bur Waarderburg
74 Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development
75 CarboForExpert
76 MPEG - Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi [Belém, Brésil]
77 CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research
78 University of Yaoundé [Cameroun]
79 IES - JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability
80 Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences
81 Plant Systemat & Ecol Lab
82 Department of Neurology
83 Naturalis Biodiversity Center [Leiden]
84 Division of Marine Science and Conservation, Nicholas School of the Environment
85 Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo Forestal
86 University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee
87 Van der Hout Forestry Consulting
88 UMCG - University Medical Center Groningen [Groningen]
89 CAVElab - Computational & Applied Vegetation Ecology
90 UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]
91 IB - Department of Integrative Biology [Berkeley]
92 Sch Earth Sci & Environm Sustainabil
93 University of Stirling
94 Biol Sci
95 Biodiversity Department

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Mots clés: Tropical trees; Tropical forest carbon stocks; Climate change and forestry

Domaines: Systématique, phylogénie et taxonomie; Biodiversité et Ecologie; Botanique; Ecosystèmes

Martin J P Sullivan, Simon Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flávia Costa, et al.. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science, 2020, 368 (6493), pp.869-874. ⟨10.1126/science.aaw7578⟩. ⟨hal-02650649⟩