Modelling human behaviours in disasters from interviews: application to Melbourne bushfires (SSC 2016)
Résumé
This paper describes a model for raising awareness of the real (irrational and subjective) behaviours of the population in crisis situations. We analyse residents' statements and police hearings gathered aaer Victo-ria Black Saturday bushfires in to deduce a model of human behaviour based on the distinction between objective (capabilities, danger) and subjective (confidence, risk aversion) attributes, and on individual motivations. We evaluate it against observed behaviour archetypes and statistics, and show its explicative value.