New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic

Eric Le Bourg (1)

1 CRCA - Centre de Recherches sur la Cognition Animale - UMR5169

Life expectancy at birth (e0) forecasts are used to estimate future pension costs. Previous French official forecasts have often overestimated e0. Recent forecasts published by demographers provide higher e0 estimates than official forecasts for France, Sweden, Japan and the USA, and do not consider that e0 could decrease, as in previous years because of flus, heatwaves, or other outbreaks. Too optimistic forecasts make that governments may overestimate future pension needs.

Mots clés: Life expectancy at birth; Forecasts; Pension costs; France; USA; Japan

Domaines: Gériatrie et gérontologie; Démographie

Eric Le Bourg. New life expectancy forecasts are too optimistic. Biogerontology, 2021, 22, pp.655-658. ⟨10.1007/s10522-021-09942-x⟩. ⟨hal-03394301⟩